Spatio-temporal characteristics and analysis of forecast physical quantities of short-duration heavy rain in Tieling caused by Northeast Cold Vortex

In order to finely study the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of short-duration heavy rain in Tieling and improve the potential forecasting ability of short-duration heavy rain,hourly precipitation data from national meteorological stations and regional automatic stations,as well as ERA5 reanalysis data were used to compare the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of northeast cold vortex and non-northeast cold vortex short-duration heavy rain and analyze the physical quantities of predictable short-duration heavy rain in cold vortex.The results show that cold vortex short-duration heavy rain (CV_SDHR) is mainly concentrated in the central plains.Non cold vortex short-duration heavy rain (non-CV_SDHR) is mainly concentrated in the western plains,eastern and southern mountainous areas.The spatial distributions of two types of short-duration heavy rain stations show significant differences in each month.The main concentration areas of CV_SDHR move from north to south from June to September.Two types of short-duration heavy rain stations show slow a upward trend.CV_SDHR reaches its peak in July and non-CV_SDHR reaches its peak in August.CV_SDHR mainly occurs from the afternoon to the first half of the night.There are differences in the distribution of physical quantities between CV_SDHR and non-CV_SDHR in each month.The specific humidity at 925,850,and 700 hPa,the total precipitable water,and the pseudo-equivalent temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa are higher in July,and second in August.Compare the differences in the 25th percentile of physical quantities between CV_SDHR and non-CV_SDHR in each month,and obtain the monthly physical quantity thresholds for CV_SDHR in Tieling.