Risk assessment of meteorological disasters for key scenarios in Beijing's energy sector

Under the background of global warming,the energy system faces multiple challenges.As a typical energy-importing and energy-consuming megacity,Beijing is experiencing increasingly severe climate risks in the energy sector.This study established an assessment indicator system of the climate disaster risk for key scenarios in the capital's energy sector.By overlaying hazard,exposure and vulnerability,the spatial distribution characteristics of climate disaster risks were obtained for three scenarios in Beijing:summer high temperature electricity consumption,winter low temperature natural gas heating,and energy infrastructure safety under extreme precipitation.The results showed that for summer high temperature electricity consumption,the high risk and relatively high-risk areas accounted for 2.5% and 11.2% of the total area,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the capital's functional core area,the central built-up areas within the city center,southern Changping and Shunyi,and small parts of northern Daxing and northwestern Tongzhou.For winter low temperature natural gas heating,the areas with high risk and relatively high-risk accounted for 1.7% and 15.6%,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in suburban districts such as Yanqing,Huairou,Miyun,and Pinggu,as well as small parts of northeastern Fangshan,northern Daxing,and northwestern Tongzhou.For energy infrastructure safety under extreme precipitation,high-risk and relatively high-risk areas accounted for 4.7% and 21.4%,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the capital's functional core area,the central built-up areas within the city center,and small parts of northern Daxing and northwestern Tongzhou.In summary,the spatial risk patterns for both the summer high temperature electricity consumption scenario and the extreme precipitation energy infrastructure safety scenario showed lower risk in the western and northern parts and higher risk in the central city.The combined relatively high and high-risk areas overlapping for high temperatures and rainstorms accounted for 11.8% of the total area,mainly distributed within the Fourth Ring Road in the central city and contiguous plains in the inner suburbs.In contrast,the combined relatively high and high-risk areas overlapping for low temperatures and rainstorms accounted for 6.2%,mainly scattered in the transition zones between suburban plains and low mountains.The relevant risk zoning and spatial identification can provide a scientific basis for energy infrastructure planning,climate resilience improvement,and emergency supply guarantee strategy formulation in Beijing.