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    基于ResNet-LSTM的空气质量预测研究

    Research on air quality prediction based on ResNet-LSTM

    • 摘要: 选用2015—2024年汉中市空气质量监测数据和气象数据,分析汉中市空气质量指数(AQI)的时间变化特征,构建了基于ResNet-LSTM算法的空气质量预测模型,并与CNN、LSTM、CNN-LSTM、RandomForest、XGBoost算法模型进行了评价指标对比。结果表明:汉中市空气质量整体呈向好态势。AQI月变化呈“U”型,9月和10月为全年空气质量最佳时段,1月和2月是空气质量较差的月份;夏季以O3为主要污染物,其余时段PM2.5和PM10是主要污染物;AQI与温度多呈正相关,与降水呈负相关;冬春季AQI与气压、风速负相关,夏季风速转为正相关;AQI与湿度、水汽压影响关系复杂,存在季节分异;建立的ResNet-LSTM模型对AQI预测的拟合效果优于5种对比模型,其均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差、平均绝对误差较次优模型降低4.11%、5.23%、5.62%,决定系数提升至0.78。空气质量等级预报准确率为70.82%,高于CNN、LSTM、CNN-LSTM、RandomForest、XGBoost算法模型,且具有一定的短期AQI突变趋势捕捉能力。

       

      Abstract: Based on the air quality monitoring data and meteorological data in Hanzhong from 2015 to 2024, the temporal variation characteristics of air quality index (AQI) in Hanzhong were analyzed, and the air quality prediction model based on RESNET LSTM algorithm was constructed. The evaluation indexes were compared with CNN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, RandomForest and XGBoost algorithm models. The results show that the overall air quality in Hanzhong is improving. The monthly variation of AQI showed a "U" shape. September and October were the best months of the year, and January and February were the months with poor air quality; O3 was the main pollutant in summer, and PM2.5 and PM10 were the main pollutants in the rest of the time; AQI was positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with precipitation; AQI was negatively correlated with air pressure and wind speed in winter and spring, and positively correlated with wind speed in summer; The relationship between AQI and humidity, water vapor pressure is complex, and there are seasonal differences; The fitting effect of the established RESNET LSTM model for AQI prediction is better than that of the five comparison models, and its root mean square error, average absolute percentage error and average absolute error are reduced by 4.11%, 5.23% and 5.62% compared with the suboptimal model, and the determination coefficient is increased to 0.78. The accuracy rate of air quality grade prediction is 70.82%, which is higher than CNN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, RandomForest and XGBoost algorithm models, and has certain short-term AQI mutation trend capture ability.

       

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