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    松辽流域热量资源变化及对水稻生产的影响

    Change of heat resources and the effects on rice production in the Songliao River Basin

    • 摘要: 利用松辽流域177个站点1961—2022年逐日气温数据,选用多种数理统计方法和农业气候标准,研究了该流域气候明显变暖特征及其对水稻生产的影响。结果发现1961—2022年松辽流域5—9月平均气温明显升高,增温速率为0.25 ℃·(10 a)−1(P<0.01),于1995年发生突变。1996—2022年,松辽流域水稻适宜种植区边界向西北推进至满洲里、新巴尔虎左旗、博克图、鄂伦春旗和孙吴一线;水稻晚熟品种适宜种植范围较1961—1995年明显扩大,由辽宁和吉林西部向东、向北外推至吉林中部和黑龙江西南部。1961—2022年,水稻开花期障碍型低温冷害影响站次比呈略减少趋势。气候变暖后冷害影响站数减少9.8%,冷害频率整体呈西北部和北部增加、东部和南部减小的变化趋势。开花期障碍型低温冷害的发生与熟型升级、热量变化及气温波动有关。熟型升级使水稻开花期障碍型冷害频率平均增加7.1%;气候变暖后,冷害频率以减少为主(站数占比71.5%),另有少数站点气温变异系数增大,是冷害频率略增加的主要原因。

       

      Abstract: Based on daily temperature data of 177 stations in the Songliao River Basin Basin from 1961 to 2022, the obvious characteristics of climate warming and the effects on rice production were studied using multiple statistic methods and agricultural climate standards. The results show that the mean temperature from May to September increases significantly with the warming rate at 0.25 ℃/10 a in the Songliao River from 1961 to 2022, and an abrupt change occurred in 1995. During 1996-2022, The boundary of suitable rice planting area moves to Man zhouli, Xin baerhu Left Banner, Bo ketu, Elunchun Banner and Sunwu northwestward in the Songliao River Basin. The suitable rice planting area of late maturing variety expands obviously from Liaoning and western Jilin to central Jilin and south western Hei longjiang eastward and northward compared with that 1961-1995. The station occurrence ratio of sterile-type chilling injury at the rice heading and flowering stages showes a slight decreasing trend from 1961 to 2022. After climate warming, the number of stations affected by sterile-type chilling injury at the rice heading and flowering stages decreases by 9.8%, and the chilling injury occurrence frequency generally showes an increasing trend in the northwest and north, and a decreasing trend in the east and south. The occurrence of sterile-type chilling injury is correlated with maturity upgrade, heat change and temperature fluctuation at the rice heading and flowering stages. Maturity type upgrading leads to the increase of the chilling injury occurrence frequency by 7.1% on average. Due to climate warming, the chilling injury occurrence frequency mainly decreases (accounting for 71.5% of stations). In addition, the chilling injury occurrence frequency increases mainly due to the increased coefficient of temperature variation in a small number of stations.

       

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