Abstract:
It was estimated that the spatial and temporal evolution pattern and potential for land vegetation carbon sequestration capacity under different emission scenarios in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060 are of great significance to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. This study was based on the sixth International Coupled Mode Comparison Plan (CMIP6) multi-mode ensemble simulation data, drived the carbon cycle model (BEPS), and analyzed the vegetation productivity of terrestrial ecosystems under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060, and achieved a quantitative estimate of total primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in Heilongjiang Province with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The results showed that the corrected BEPS model-driven data accuracy improvement in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060 was conducive to the improvement of vegetation productivity prediction accuracy. Under the three emission scenarios, the vegetation NPP in most areas of Heilongjiang Province was higher than 500 gC·m-2·a-1 from 2021 to 2060. Compared with other regions, the forest area in the central and southern part of Heilongjiang Province had the strongest vegetation productivity, and the vegetation NPP is stable at over 700 gC·m-2·a-1. Under different emission scenarios, the overall vegetation productivity of Heilongjiang Province increased from 2021 to 2060, among which the Daxinganling Forest Area and Eastern Agricultural Area had the largest