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    2021-2060年黑龙江省不同排放情景下植被生产力预估

    Estimation of Vegetation Productivity in Heilongjiang Province under Different Emission Scenarios from 2021 to 2060

    • 摘要: 预估2021-2060年黑龙江省不同排放情景下陆地植被固碳能力时空演变格局以及增汇潜力,对于“双碳”目标的实现意义重大。本研究基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)多模式集合模拟数据,驱动碳循环模型(BEPS),分析2021-2060年黑龙江省在三种排放情景(SSP126、SSP245和SSP585)下的陆地生态系统植被生产力,在黑龙江省区域实现了1 km空间分辨率的植被总初级生产力(GPP)和净初级生产力(NPP)定量预估。结果表明,订正后2021-2060年黑龙江省BEPS模型驱动数据精度提升,有助于植被生产力预估精度提升;三种排放情景下,2021-2060年黑龙江省绝大部分地区植被NPP高于500 gC·m-2·a-1,相较于其他地区黑龙江省中南部林区植被生产力最强,植被NPP稳定在700 gC·m-2·a-1以上;不同排放情景下,2021-2060年黑龙江省植被生产力总体增强,其中大兴安岭林区和东部农区增强幅度最大,与SSP126和SSP245情景相比,SSP585情景黑龙江省植被生产力最强,增强幅度最大且最不稳定。

       

      Abstract: It was estimated that the spatial and temporal evolution pattern and potential for land vegetation carbon sequestration capacity under different emission scenarios in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060 are of great significance to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. This study was based on the sixth International Coupled Mode Comparison Plan (CMIP6) multi-mode ensemble simulation data, drived the carbon cycle model (BEPS), and analyzed the vegetation productivity of terrestrial ecosystems under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060, and achieved a quantitative estimate of total primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in Heilongjiang Province with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The results showed that the corrected BEPS model-driven data accuracy improvement in Heilongjiang Province from 2021 to 2060 was conducive to the improvement of vegetation productivity prediction accuracy. Under the three emission scenarios, the vegetation NPP in most areas of Heilongjiang Province was higher than 500 gC·m-2·a-1 from 2021 to 2060. Compared with other regions, the forest area in the central and southern part of Heilongjiang Province had the strongest vegetation productivity, and the vegetation NPP is stable at over 700 gC·m-2·a-1. Under different emission scenarios, the overall vegetation productivity of Heilongjiang Province increased from 2021 to 2060, among which the Daxinganling Forest Area and Eastern Agricultural Area had the largest

       

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