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    基于机器学习的地基云量多阈值判识方法研究

    Study on multi-threshold identification method of foundation cloud cover based on machine learning

    • 摘要: 针对复杂气象场景下地基云量的自动化观测,提出了一种太阳高度-能见度驱动的动态多阈值云量判识方法。基于全国24个代表站2021—2023年190,628张地基云图样本,利用机器学习方法,通过融合地基云图可见光辐射特性、实时气象光学视程及太阳高度角参数,构建自适应多阈值生成模型,突破传统固定阈值法在晨昏、薄云及低能见度场景的适应性瓶颈,并对多阈值方法进行了验证。结果表明:云天分割阈值随太阳高度角升高而增大,低太阳高度角和高太阳高度角的阈值范围分别为0.95~1.15和1.30~1.45;云天分割阈值随能见度降低而减小,当能见度>10 km或<1 km时,太阳高度角阈值范围分别为1.07~1.45、0.95~1.15,当能见度<500 m时,阈值分割法判识结果失去可靠性。通过交互场景阈值验证和云类差异化验证表明,该判识方法在低太阳高度角(<10°)与低能见度(<1 km)复杂场景下,云量判识平均绝对误差降至11.0%,较固定阈值法提升36.7%;0~1、1~3、3~7、>7成云量识别准确率分别达93%、89.5%、88.7%、95.9%,较现有最优基线(DeepLab V3+)法分别提升3.7%、4.2%、2.2%、2.5%。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: This study Aiming at the automatic observation of ground-based cloud cover in complex meteorological scenarios, this paper proposes a dynamic multi-threshold cloud cover identification method driven by solar altitude and visibility. Based on a database of 190,628 ground-based cloud image samples from 24 representative stations across China from 2021 to 2023, a machine learning approach is employed to construct an adaptive multi-threshold generation model by fusing visible light radiation characteristics of ground-based cloud images, real-time meteorological optical range, and solar altitude angle parameters. This model breaks through the adaptability bottleneck of traditional fixed threshold methods in scenarios such as dawn/dusk, thin clouds, and low visibility. The results show that the cloud-sky segmentation threshold increases with the rise of solar altitude angle, with threshold ranges of 0.95~1.15 and 1.30~1.45 for low and high solar altitude angles, respectively. The cloud-sky segmentation threshold decreases as visibility decreases; when visibility is >10 km and <1 km, the solar altitude angle threshold ranges are 1.07~1.45 and 0.95~1.15, respectively, while the threshold segmentation method loses reliability when visibility is <500m. Validation through interactive scenario threshold verification and cloud type differentiation verification demonstrates that this identification method reduces the mean absolute error of cloud cover identification to 11.0% in complex scenarios with low solar altitude (<10°) and low visibility (<1 km), representing a 36.7% improvement over the fixed threshold method. The recognition accuracies for cloud cover fractions of 0~1, 1~3, 3~7, and >7 tenths reach 93%, 89.5%, 88.7%, and 95.9%, respectively, which are 3.7%, 4.2%, 2.2%, and 2.5% higher than the existing optimal baseline (DeepLab V3+).

       

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