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    鄂尔多斯市生长季植被指数变化及其对气候的响应

    Changes of NDVI and its response to climate factors in Ordos City during the growing season

    • 摘要: 鄂尔多斯市地处草原荒漠过渡带,生态环境脆弱敏感。为研究其植被动态变化及其对气候的响应,利用2000—2023年分辨率为250 m的MOD13Q1数据和气象观测资料,运用Theil-Sen趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验,结合变异系数、Hurst 指数和相关系数,分析鄂尔多斯市生长季NDVI的时空变化特征、稳定性、可持续性以及对气候因子的响应机制。结果表明:鄂尔多斯市生长季NDVI均值为0.252,每10 a增长速率为0.045,显著增加区域占全市总面积的75.03%,主要位于东部地区以及北部的沙地。NDVI 的平均变异系数为0.18,表明植被稳定性整体较弱,植被生长易受外界环境影响;Hurst指数均值为0.44,预示着未来NDVI可能呈现反持续性下降趋势。降水量对植被生长的影响大于气温,NDVI与降水量呈显著正相关的区域占比为48.77%,主要分布于西部的草地和沙地;NDVI与气温呈显著正相关的区域占比为20.15%,主要位于中东部降水相对充沛的草地间耕地。月尺度分析表明,7月的水热条件对植被生长具有重要影响,其中7月降水量对当月及8月、9月植被生长均表现出持续的正向促进作用,而7月气温则呈现负向抑制作用。

       

      Abstract: Ordos City is located in a transitional zone between grassland and desert,with a fragile and sensitive ecological environment.In order to study the dynamic changes of vegetation and its response to climate factors,MOD13Q1 data with a resolution of 250 m and meteorological observation data from 2000 to 2023 were used.Theil Sen trend analysis and Mann Kendall test were applied,combined with coefficient of variation,Hurst index,and correlation coefficient to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics,stability,sustainability,and response mechanism of NDVI in the growing season of Ordos City to climate factors.The results showed that the average NDVI in the growing season of Ordos was 0.269,and the growth rate was 0.045/10 a.The significant increase area accounted for 75.03% of the total area of the city,mainly located in the eastern region and the sandy land in the north.The average coefficient of variation of NDVI was 0.18,indicating that the overall stability of vegetation was weak,and vegetation growth was vulnerable to external environment; The average Hurst index was 0.44,indicating that the NDVI may show an anti sustainable downward trend in the future.The effect of precipitation on vegetation growth was greater than that of temperature,and the area with significant positive correlation between NDVI and precipitation accounted for 48.77%,mainly distributed in grassland and sandy land in the West; The proportion of regions with significant positive correlation between NDVI and temperature was 20.15%,which is mainly located in the grassland and farmland with relatively abundant precipitation in the Middle East.The monthly scale analysis showed that the water and heat conditions in July had an important impact on the vegetation growth,and the precipitation in July showed a continuous positive promoting effect on the vegetation growth in the current month and subsequent August and September,while the temperature in July showed a negative inhibiting effect.

       

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