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    辽宁夏季铁路断行时空分布特征及降水重现期

    Research on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of summer railway disruptions and precipitation recurrence intervals in Liaoning Province

    • 摘要: 利用辽宁地区铁路断行记录,匹配断行前的降水信息,分析铁路断行的时空分布规律及其与降水特征的关系,并计算降水重现期。结果表明:辽宁夏季近11 a铁路断行共334次,其年变化趋势与辽宁夏季降水量变化趋势较为一致。断行主要发生在6—10月,其中8月的断行发生次数最多。断行最多的线路为沈丹线的丹东工务段,其次为新义线和京哈高速线的阜新—锦州交界区段。铁路水害断行点位的坡度主要分布在0°~4°,随着坡度增加,频数呈下降趋势。高程主要分布在300 m以下的低高程地区。铁路断行次数与降水量呈显著正相关,相关系数为0.86。导致铁路夏季断行的主要降水量级为暴雨和大暴雨,主要降水类型为局地暴雨。对各类地理信息要素进行特征重要性排序,选取排名前四的要素作为聚类因子。利用K-means聚类方法将辽宁分为三类地理区域,并针对三类区域利用不同时间段的降水量分别计算降水重现期,为铁路夏季防范断行风险提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The temporal and spatial distribution of railway disconnection and its relationship with precipitation characteristics were analyzed by using the railway disruption recordsin Liaoning area and matching the precipitation dataprior to the disruption,and the precipitation return period was calculated.The results show that There were 334 railway outagesin Liaoningover the past 11 years,and the annual change trend is consistent with the change trend of summer precipitation in Liaoning.The disruptions were distributedfrom June to October,andthe number of disruptions in August was the highest.The line with the most disruptionsisthe Dandong section of the Shendan Line,followed by the Fuxin-Jinzhou junction section of the Xinyi Lineandthe Jingha High-speed Line.The slope at the railway water damage breakpointsis mainly between 0° and 4°.With the increase of the slope,the frequency decreases.The elevations are mainly in low-elevation areas below 300 m.There is a significant positive correlation between the number of railway outages and precipitation,andwith a correlation coefficient of 0.86.The main precipitation levels leading to the disruptionsof the railway in summer are rainstorm and heavy rainstorm,and the main precipitation type is local rainstorm.The feature importance of various geographic information elements was ranked,andthe top four elements were selected as clustering factors.The K-means clustering method was used to divide Liaoning into three geographical regions,andthe rainfall return period was calculated using precipitation data from different time periods for the three regions,to support railway disaster prevention in summer.

       

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