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    北京市能源领域主要场景的气象灾害风险评估

    Risk assessment of meteorological disasters for key scenarios in Beijing's energy sector

    • 摘要: 在全球变暖背景下,能源系统面临多重挑战,北京作为典型的能源输入型和消费型超大城市,能源领域面临的气候风险日益严峻。研究针对首都能源领域关键场景建立了气候灾害风险评估指标体系,通过危险性、暴露度和脆弱性叠加,分别获得了北京市夏季高温用电、冬季低温天然气采暖、极端降水下能源基础设施安全三大场景的气候灾害风险空间分布特征。结果表明:夏季高温用电高风险、较高风险区域的面积占比分别为2.5%和11.2%,高风险区主要分布于首都功能核心区、中心城内部集中建设区、昌平和顺义南部,以及大兴北部和通州西北部等少部分地区;冬季低温天然气采暖高风险、较高风险区域的面积占比分别为1.7%和15.6%,高风险区主要分布于远郊区中心建成区,以及房山东北部、大兴北部以及通州西北部少部分区域;极端降水下能源基础设施安全高风险、较高风险区域的面积占比分别为4.7%和21.4%,高风险区主要分布于首都功能核心区、中心城内部集中建设区,以及大兴北部和通州西北部少部分地区。综合来看,夏季高温用电场景和极端降水能源设施安全场景的风险空间格局均呈西部、北部低,中心城高的分布特点,两者共同较高及以上风险区域的面积占比为11.8%,主要分布在中心城区四环内区域及近郊连片平原;而低温与暴雨叠加的较高及以上风险区域的面积占比为6.2%,主要零散分布在近郊平原与浅山过渡带。相关风险区划及空间识别可为北京能源设施规划、气候韧性提升及保供预案制定提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Under the background of global warming,the energy system faces multiple challenges.As a typical energy-importing and energy-consuming megacity,Beijing is experiencing increasingly severe climate risks in the energy sector.This study established an assessment indicator system of the climate disaster risk for key scenarios in the capital's energy sector.By overlaying hazard,exposure and vulnerability,the spatial distribution characteristics of climate disaster risks were obtained for three scenarios in Beijing:summer high temperature electricity consumption,winter low temperature natural gas heating,and energy infrastructure safety under extreme precipitation.The results showed that for summer high temperature electricity consumption,the high risk and relatively high-risk areas accounted for 2.5% and 11.2% of the total area,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the capital's functional core area,the central built-up areas within the city center,southern Changping and Shunyi,and small parts of northern Daxing and northwestern Tongzhou.For winter low temperature natural gas heating,the areas with high risk and relatively high-risk accounted for 1.7% and 15.6%,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in suburban districts such as Yanqing,Huairou,Miyun,and Pinggu,as well as small parts of northeastern Fangshan,northern Daxing,and northwestern Tongzhou.For energy infrastructure safety under extreme precipitation,high-risk and relatively high-risk areas accounted for 4.7% and 21.4%,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the capital's functional core area,the central built-up areas within the city center,and small parts of northern Daxing and northwestern Tongzhou.In summary,the spatial risk patterns for both the summer high temperature electricity consumption scenario and the extreme precipitation energy infrastructure safety scenario showed lower risk in the western and northern parts and higher risk in the central city.The combined relatively high and high-risk areas overlapping for high temperatures and rainstorms accounted for 11.8% of the total area,mainly distributed within the Fourth Ring Road in the central city and contiguous plains in the inner suburbs.In contrast,the combined relatively high and high-risk areas overlapping for low temperatures and rainstorms accounted for 6.2%,mainly scattered in the transition zones between suburban plains and low mountains.The relevant risk zoning and spatial identification can provide a scientific basis for energy infrastructure planning,climate resilience improvement,and emergency supply guarantee strategy formulation in Beijing.

       

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