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    锦州地区春玉米物候变化趋势及其与水热条件的关系

    Phenology variations of spring maize and their correlations with hydrothermal conditions in Jinzhou

    • 摘要: 利用1980—1984年和2004—2020年锦州市农业气象观测站春玉米物候观测资料和气象观测资料, 采用趋势系数、倾向率、相关分析和通径分析等方法, 分析了锦州市春玉米生育期长度和水热条件的变化趋势, 并探讨了锦州市春玉米生育期长度与水热条件的关系。结果表明: 1980—1984年和2004—2020年锦州地区春玉米各生育期长度变化趋势不同, 除抽雄期、成熟期和生殖生长期外, 其他生育期长度均呈缩短的趋势。营养生长期长度极显著缩短, 生殖生长期长度极显著延长, 因此全生育期呈弱的延长趋势, 变化不明显。春玉米各生育期水热条件变化趋势不同, 热量条件变化显著, 而水分条件变化不显著, 多数生育期≥10 ℃活动积温(DT10)和生长度日(GDD)呈增加的趋势, 其中抽雄期、成熟期和生殖生长期、全生育期热量条件呈极显著增加趋势, 表明热量条件对春玉米生长发育影响最大。相关分析和通径分析表明, DT10和GDD对春玉米生育期长度影响最大, 水分条件对春玉米生育期长度影响较小, 其中出苗期、成熟期和全生育期长度与水分条件相关显著。可见, 锦州地区水热因子之间相互制约、相互影响, 共同影响春玉米的整个生育期。

       

      Abstract: Based on the phenological data of spring maize and meteorological observation data at Jinzhou agrometeorological observation station from 1980 to 1984 and 2004 to 2020, the changing trends of spring maize growth period length and hydrothermal factors at the same time were studied using the methods of trend coefficient, tendency rate, correlation analysis, and path analysis.In addition, the relationship between spring maize growth period length and hydrothermal conditions was discussed.The results show that each of the growth period lengths of spring maize in Jinzhou has different trends from 1980 to 1984 and 2004 to 2020.Except for tasseling period, maturity period, and reproductive growth period, the length of other growth periods shows a shortening trend.Particularly, the length of the vegetative growth period is significantly shortened, while the length of the reproductive growth period is significantly prolonged, The whole growth period shows a weak extension trend, and the change is not obvious.The changing trend of hydrothermal conditions in each growth period of spring maize is different.The variation of heat conditions is large, while the variation of water conditions is relatively small.The active accumulated temperature ≥ 10 ℃ (DT10) and Growth Degree Day (GDD) in most growth periods show an increasing trend, and there is a very significant increase in tasseling period, maturity period, reproductive growth period, and whole growth period.It can be seen that heat conditions have a great impact on the growth and development of spring maize.Correlation analysis and path analysis show that both DT10 and GDD have a great effect on the growth period length of spring maize, while water conditions have less effect.The length of seedling period, maturity period, and whole growth period are significantly correlated with water conditions.The water and heat factors restrict and influence each other, and jointly affect the whole growth period of spring maize.

       

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