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    基于GIS与模糊隶属函数的辽宁省白梨种植气候适宜性区划

    Climate suitability zoning of white pear planting in Liaoning province based on GIS and fuzzy membership function

    • 摘要: 针对气候变化背景下辽宁省白梨种植气候适宜性区划研究滞后、传统区划指标难以精准刻画区域限制因子等问题,本研究基于1993—2022年辽宁省45个气象观测站数据及白梨生长特性,创新性引入年干燥度与无霜期天数两项关键生态指标,构建了符合区域气候特征的综合评价指标体系。依托ArcGIS平台,集成多元回归空间插值与模糊集线性隶属函数方法,实现了100m×100m高网格尺度气候适宜性模拟与精细化区划表达。结果表明:影响白梨种植气候适宜性区划指标有年平均气温、年降水量、1月平均气温、6~8月相对湿度、6~8月平均最低气温、无霜期与年干燥度。白梨气候最适宜区集中分布于渤海沿岸及辽东部分沿海地区(大连大部、营口北部等),适宜区主要位于辽西及辽东湾周边,次适宜区与不适宜区呈显著纬向分异;经24个样点野外实地验证,区划结果与实际梨树长势一致率达83.3%,较常规区划提升25个百分点。

       

      Abstract: To address the lag in climate suitability zoning research for white pear cultivation in Liaoning Province under climate change and the limitations of traditional zoning indicators in accurately depicting regional constraints, this study innovatively introduced two key ecological indicators—annual dryness and frost-free days—based on data from 45 meteorological stations and white pear growth characteristics between 1993 and 2022. A comprehensive evaluation index system aligned with regional climate features was established. Leveraging the ArcGIS platform, the study integrated multiple regression spatial interpolation with fuzzy set linear membership function methods to achieve high-resolution (100m×100m) climate suitability simulation and refined zoning expression. Results indicate that the climate suitability indicators for white pear cultivation include annual average temperature, annual precipitation, January average temperature, relative humidity from June to August, average minimum temperature from June to August, frost-free days, and annual dryness. The most suitable climate zones for white pear cultivation are concentrated along the Bohai Sea coast and parts of eastern Liaoning (e.g., most of Dalian and northern Yingkou), while the suitable zones are mainly located in western Liaoning and the Liaodong Bay area. The sub-suitable and unsuitable zones exhibit significant latitudinal differentiation. Field validation at 24 sampling points showed that the zoning results achieved an 83.3% consistency rate with actual pear tree growth conditions, representing a 25-percentage-point improvement over conventional zoning methods.

       

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