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    基于定量评估指标的中国恒春气候时空演变特征研究

    Research on the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of perpetual spring climate in China based on quantitative evaluation indicators

    • 摘要: 利用1961—2024年中国1815个国家级气象站逐日观测资料,围绕恒春气候的核心要素—气温和气候舒适度,选取15个气象要素评价指标并研制恒春气候评价指标体系,进而采用归一化和权重系数方法构建了恒春气候指数,并基于此定量评估了中国恒春气候的时空演变特征。结果表明:中国恒春气候主要分布在云南大部、四川南部、贵州西南部等地,其中云南大部和四川南部恒春气候资源优势明显。1961—2024年,全国恒春气候指数呈显著增加趋势,其中1985年以后恒春气候指数的年际变化更为稳定。恒春气候评价指标体系中冬季各项指标以及年舒适日数、年温差的变化趋势均有利于恒春气候资源,而夏季各项指标以及春秋舒适日数的变化趋势对恒春气候产生不利影响。中国恒春气候的形成受低纬度和高海拔的叠加影响,恒春气候站点海拔高度一般在600—2200 m之间,且恒春气候指数的变化趋势与海拔高度呈显著正相关。通过构建中国恒春气候评价指标体系以及恒春气候指数,定量精准评估恒春气候资源,可以为气候资源的开发利用提供科学支撑,更好服务旅游、康养等相关产业。

       

      Abstract: Based on daily observation data by 1815 national meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2024, focused on the core elements of perpetual spring climate - temperature and climate comfort, 15 meteorological evaluation indicators were selected and perpetual spring climate evaluation index system was developed. The normalization and weight coefficient methods were used to construct t perpetual spring climate index, and this index was used to quantitatively evaluate the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of perpetual spring climate in China. The results show that perpetual spring climate is mainly distributed in most of Yunnan, southern Sichuan, and southwestern Guizhou. The resource advantages of perpetual spring climate in most of Yunnan and southern Sichuan were obvious. From 1961 to 2024, perpetual spring climate index showed a significant increasing trend, and the interannual variation of perpetual spring climate index became more stable after 1985. Within the evaluation index system, trends in winter indicators, as well as in annual comfortable days and annual temperature range, are favorable for perpetual spring climate resources, whereas trends in summer indicators and spring and autumn comfort days exert adverse effects. The formation of perpetual spring climate in China is influenced by the combined effects of low latitude and high altitude, with stations typically located at elevations between 600 and 2,200 meters, and the change trend of perpetual spring climate index is significantly correlated with the altitude. Based on perpetual spring climate evaluation index system and perpetual spring climate index, this provides a quantitative and precise assessment of perpetual spring climate resources. The findings can offer scientific support for the development and utilization of climate resources, thereby better serving tourism, wellness, and other related industries.

       

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