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    河南省夏玉米全生育期干旱灾害综合风险评估

    Comprehensive risk assessment of drought disasters during the entire growth period of summer maize in Henan province

    • 摘要: 评估夏玉米全生育期内的干旱灾害综合风险,能为夏玉米生产抗旱减灾工作提供科学的决策支撑。本研究以河南省为研究区域,整合气象站观测气象数据、农作物种植分布资料、数字高程数据、河网密度数据及植被覆盖度数据等多源信息,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性三个核心维度,系统分析并评估河南省夏玉米全生育期干旱灾害的发生特征与综合风险。结果表明:河南省夏玉米全生育期干旱致灾因子危险性指数的空间分布规律与干旱总发生频率高度契合,均呈现由北向南逐步降低的特征;豫北、豫西、豫中、豫东、豫南的干旱平均总发生频率依次为 92.3%、74.4%、77.8%、87.2%、55.4%,干旱类型以轻旱、中旱为主,对应平均危险性指数为 47.7、36.7、39.6、44.2、26.1。孕灾环境对干旱灾害的影响程度呈现西高东低的特点,豫西地区受孕灾环境的影响最为显著。承灾体易损性高值区集中在豫北西北部、豫中西北部及南部局部、豫南北部局部区域,豫南东南部则为易损性低值区。河南省夏玉米全生育期干旱灾害综合风险整体表现为北高南低的空间分布格局,高风险区主要分布于豫北中西部、豫西西北部局部、豫中北部、豫东西北部局部区域,占区域总面积的 16.4%。据此,河南省夏玉米抗旱工作应重点聚焦北部高风险区域,制定针对性防御措施,有效降低干旱灾害造成的农业生产损失。

       

      Abstract: Evaluating the comprehensive risk of drought disasters during the entire growth period of summer maize provides important scientific reference for drought resistance and disaster reduction in summer maize production. Taking Henan province as the research area, this study integrated multi-source data including meteorological observation data from meteorological stations, crop planting distribution data, digital elevation data, river network density data and vegetation coverage data. It analyzed the hazard of disaster-causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-prone environment and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and systematically evaluated the occurrence characteristics and comprehensive risk of drought disasters during the entire growth period of summer maize in Henan Province. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the hazard index of drought disaster-causing factors during the entire growth period of summer maize in Henan Province was highly consistent with the total frequency of drought occurrence, both showing a gradual decrease from north to south. The average total frequency of drought occurrence in northern, western, central, eastern and southern Henan was 92.3%, 74.4%, 77.8%, 87.2% and 55.4% respectively, with mild and moderate drought as the main types, and the corresponding average hazard indices were 47.7, 36.7, 39.6, 44.2 and 26.1. The impact of disaster-prone environment on drought disasters was higher in the west and lower in the east, with the western Henan being the most significantly affected. The high-value areas of disaster-bearing body vulnerability were concentrated in the northwest of northern Henan, the northwest and southern parts of central Henan, and the northern part of southern Henan, while the southeast of southern Henan was the low-value area. The comprehensive risk of drought disasters during the entire growth period of summer maize in Henan province showed a spatial pattern of high in the north and low in the south as a whole. The high-risk areas were mainly distributed in the central and western parts of northern Henan, some areas in the northwest of western Henan, the northern part of central Henan and some areas in the northeast of eastern Henan, accounting for 16.4% of the total area of the region. Therefore, the drought resistance work of summer maize in Henan Province should focus on the northern high-risk areas, and take targeted preventive measures to effectively reduce the agricultural production losses caused by drought disasters.

       

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