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    社区步行路径的风热气候风险评价与适应性策略研究——以南宁市埌西片区为例

    • 摘要: 社区步行路径中的气候风险具有连续变化特征,单一平均值难以反映风险范围及其空间连续性。本文构建“环境感知—风险评估—路径诊断—策略优化—管理反馈”五阶段社区步行路径气候适应性评价与优化框架,并以南宁市埌西片区为案例验证框架的适用性。基于ENVI-met模拟,比较3组常规路径与备用路径在夏季高温高湿和冬季低温—较强背景风情景下的表现,以路径长度加权平均UTCI和风速、风险路段比例及最大连续风险距离表征暴露强度、影响范围与空间连续性,并结合绕行率评价路径替代的可行性。结果表明:夏季12:00和14:00强热应激接近全路径覆盖,单纯换路收益有限;18:00路径差异增大,P1-B和P3-B具有降温收益,但P1-B的绕行率达31.91%。冬季冷应激集中于8:00和18:00,P2-B兼具增温、减风和0.26%的低绕行优势,而P3-B会增加冷应激和较高风速暴露。研究据此区分可通过时段化换路缓解的差异性风险与需要空间干预的网络性风险,并形成分季节、分时段的路径建议和空间更新策略。由于模型尚未开展同步实测验证,相关结果主要用于相同边界条件下不同路径的相对比较。在这一适用范围内,本文构建的框架实现了从微气候模拟、路径风险诊断到规划应对的衔接,可为社区步行环境的精细化气候适应提供方法支持。

       

      Abstract: Climate risks along community walking routes vary continuously, and a single mean value cannot adequately characterize their spatial extent and continuity. This study develops a five-stage framework for the climate-adaptive evaluation and optimization of community walking routes, comprising environmental sensing, risk assessment, route diagnosis, strategy optimization, and management feedback, and applies it to the Langxi area of Nanning to demonstrate its applicability. Based on ENVI-met simulations, three pairs of conventional and alternative routes are compared under hot-humid summer conditions and cold winter conditions with relatively strong background winds. Route-length-weighted mean UTCI and wind speed, the proportion of risk-exposed segments, and the maximum continuous risk distance are used to represent exposure intensity, affected extent, and spatial continuity, while detour rates are incorporated to evaluate route-substitution feasibility. The results show that very strong heat stress covers nearly the entire routes at 12:00 and 14:00 in summer, leaving limited scope for route switching. At 18:00, route differences become more pronounced: P1-B and P3-B provide cooling benefits, although P1-B entails a 31.91% detour. In winter, cold stress is concentrated at 8:00 and 18:00. P2-B combines warming and wind-reduction benefits with a low detour rate of 0.26%, whereas P3-B increases both cold-stress and higher-wind-speed exposure. The framework distinguishes differential risks that can be mitigated through time-specific route switching from network-wide risks that require spatial intervention, and translates the diagnosis into season- and time-specific route recommendations and spatial-renewal strategies. As the model has not been validated against synchronous field measurements, the results are intended primarily for relative comparisons among routes under the same boundary conditions. Within this scope, the proposed frameworkIt links microclimate simulation, route-level risk diagnosis, and planning responses, providing methodological support for refined climate adaptation of community walking environments.

       

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